After dropping around 9% versus its peak on July 17, 2024, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange saw some value purchasing at lower levels on Thursday, which persisted for the next two days. The MCX gold rate rose from ₹68,426 per 10 gm to an intraday high of ₹68,534 per 10 gm shortly after the market opened. According to commodity market experts, gold prices are climbing today for two reasons: falling US inflation and expectations of a US Fed rate drop at the forthcoming September meeting.
According to stock market experts, today’s jump in gold prices is good news for the Indian economy because we can’t afford to keep gold prices low for long. They claimed that the Indian government had previously decreased customs duties on gold and silver, resulting in the accelerated selling of precious metals. If global triggers remained weak, the possibility of a larger volume of gold imports would have a negative impact on the country’s dollar reserves. In that scenario, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had to act by releasing some of its gold holdings to keep inflation under control. They suggested cheaper gold may become another crude oil for the national economy.
Are Low Gold Prices Harmful For the Indian Economy?
On why rising gold prices today are positive news for the national economy, Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, stated, “After the announcement of a reduction in customs duty on gold and silver, the precious metal experienced strong selling in India as the domestic market adjusted to the new effective rates after the customs duty was announced to be reduced from 15% to 6%. Global indicators were similarly weak, owing to slow Chinese physical gold market demand. As a result, gold prices in India fell by roughly 9%, while in the worldwide market, they fell by about 4.5 percent from their high on July 17, 2024. However, we have seen significant value purchasing in gold over the previous three sessions, which is expected to bring some comfort to the RBI since steep price drops are projected to stimulate gold imports.”
Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities stated that rising gold imports would accelerate the rate of US dollar outflow from India, putting pressure on the Indian National Rupee (INR). Rising gold imports will also put a strain on India’s dollar reserves. The RBI cannot afford to keep gold prices low for much longer, since gold would become India’s equivalent of crude oil. To prevent such a situation, the RBI will have to either draw down its gold reserves to limit gold imports or hit the future series of Sovereign Gold Bonds.
Amit Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, agreed with Anuj Gupta, saying, “Increased gold imports could lead to a higher outflow of foreign currency (dollars) because gold is priced internationally in dollars.” If the number of imports increases significantly, the country’s foreign exchange reserves may suffer, affecting the rupee. While lowering gold taxes may result in more imports, it can also be viewed as a measure to combat illegal smuggling and promote legal trade.
On how the RBI will have to interfere to prevent cheaper gold from becoming the next crude oil for the national economy, Vaibhav Shah, Fund Manager at Torus Oro PMS, stated, “With the duty drop, the goal is to import gold through formal channels. While gold leads to FX outflows, the RBI has raised its gold reserves in recent quarters. Thus, if an increase in imports poses a concern, the RBI can always provide the required quantity. The recent increase in gold prices can also be ascribed to record purchases by central banks around the world over the last few quarters.”